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May 9, 2008

A Youth Movement, Not a Cult

Young people aren't always liberals. And the majority didn't always vote for Democrats.

Surprised? No, for real, are you?

The eighties are remembered mostly for its pop culture, but the decade was also famous for Reagan and the expansion of the Republican Party. The plurality of young people in that decade, like other age groups, voted for Reagan and identified with the G.O.P. In other words, the G.O.P. attracted more young voters than the Democratic Party while Reagan was in office.

In 1988, young people helped elect George H.W. Bush into the Oval Office. That was also the last time when more young people voted for the G.O.P. than Democrats.

The next decade was then when the Democrat's began to ride on a wave of youth energy and participation, which was reinforced at the beginning of the new century. Bill Clinton's victory in 1992 was helped in part by the second highest recorded turnout of young people since 1972 -- 52 percent. (pdf)

Even though young people have favored the Democrats since 1992, it hasn't always been by an overwhelming margin; young people were split more evenly in 1998 and 2000. Gore won the plurality of the youth vote in 2000, but only by a 2 percentage-point margin. (pdf)

This was followed by a burst in youth support in 2004; the margin soared to nine percentage points in favor of Kerry. More recently, in the 2006 Congressional house races, 58 percent of young people supported a Democratic Candidate. (pdf) Moreover, the plurality of young voters identified with the Democratic Party, a 12 percentage point advantage over the G.O.P. And even more recently, in the 2008 primary contests, for which we have exit poll data for both parties, roughly three-quarters of all young voters participated in the Democratic primary.

So yes, divisive politics turns out voters -- of all stripes -- and young voters are no different. In 2004 and 2006, young voters came out in larger numbers -- by a greater margin -- than any other age group. The 2008 primary season is no different.

But what is different in this election, isn't just the energy, it's proof that the strategy of reaching out to young voters works. The growing support for Democrats, especially in this primary season, is partly the result of direct and tailored outreach to young people; the GOP is not putting as much effort into recruiting young voters.

Youth outreach matters, as in, it just might win you an election, especially when the Millennials are about to surpass the Baby Boomers generation in numbers. Democrats were the first to recognize this in the 2008 election.

Party affiliation, and more importantly, preferences are not dictated by time and age, but through the strength of the argument made in its case. Progressives have been making their case now for years, and most are not buying into any stereotypes about young voters. This is a movement that is years in the making and still growing.

• Posted by Karlo Barrios Marcelo at 12:00PM on 05/ 9/08
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