June 9, 2008

Obama, McCain And Midwest Youth Voters

Posted by Sarah Burris at 12:00AM

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Much of the media has spent the last week talking about mistakes the Clinton Campaign made in a year that was formerly seen to be all hers for the democratic nomination and opportunities the Obama Campaign capitalized on early and often.

In Sunday's New York Times, top campaign adviser to the Clintons Mark Penn attributes a number of problems, but most notably says

"From more aggressively courting young people earlier to mobilizing the full power of women, there are things that could have been done differently."

In the new TIME Magazine headline article How Obama Did It young voters also earn a lot of credit.

"In most presidential elections, the Iowa caucuses are an anomaly. Competing there is a complicated, labor-intensive undertaking that, once finished, is cast off as an oddity and never repeated. But in 2008 it became for Obama the road test of a youth-oriented, technology-fueled organization and the model for many of the wins that followed. It was also a challenge to history...

"But counting on new voters had proved disastrous for Dean in 2004. The Obama campaign knew that it would have to build a network of Iowans rather than supporters brought in from other parts of the country, says Plouffe, but "we didn't have to accept the electorate as it is."

"Show up they did, shattering turnout records. Obama prevailed with a surprising eight-point margin over Edwards, who came in second. Obama counts Iowa as his biggest victory, the one that foreshadowed the rest. "Voters under 30 participated at the same rates as voters over 65. That had never happened before," the Democratic nominee says. "That continues to be something I'm very proud of — how we've expanded the voter rolls in every state where we've campaigned. I think that means we can put into play some states that might normally not be in play."

(emphasis mine)

As Mike over at FM points out "this is a far cry from Mark Penn at the Iowa Jefferson-Jackson dinner" back in January.

"At least two of Hillary Clinton’s upper-echelon advisers, Mandy Grunwald and Mark Penn, were decidedly unimpressed .

“Our people look like caucus-goers,” Grunwald said, “and his people look like they are 18. Penn said they look like Facebook.”

Penn added, “Only a few of their people look like they could vote in any state.”

This all proves once again, if you build it... they will come.

Several months ago I wrote a blog about how surprised I was at the turnout for Republican candidates in Oklahoma. This week I learned of another candidate nearby that has polling information that shows young people in the district trending more conservatively in another heartland state. This is different from the national trends that indicate young people tend to favor more progressive candidates.

The difference isn't one I am any kind of expert on, but it seems to me that in these states, my home states, there is little to no connection from the progressive community to do youth outreach or mentor programs. I've heard rumblings for some time about hopes for such outreach or "if only we could fund it" sceneries, but nothing has happened.

While you could say, if you build it they will come, something else is also true. If you don't build it, someone else will. Republicans have a lot to look forward to if they recruit young people in conservative states, but if the Obama campaign continues their outreach it could be the defining factor for many other races in the area.